Source: Biological Conservation Newsletter
Tropical rainforests are among the most species rich regions of the world. If current deforestation and habitat loss continues, a mass extinction of forest species is predicted in these areas. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute scientist S. Joseph Wright and Helene Muller-Landau from the University of Minnesota have recently conducted a survey of human population trends and forest cover.
Wright and Muller-Landau use present-day relationships between forest cover and population density and United Nations population projections to predict future forest cover for tropical African, American and Asian countries. United Nations population projections generally predict that human population growth rates will decline and that urbanization will intensify. Wright and Muller-Landau predict future forest cover using both an optimistic scenario based on rural populations alone and a pessimistic scenario based on total (rural plus urban) populations.
Continental trends suggest that deforestation will decrease and a larger area will remain forested in the Americas where population growth is slowing most rapidly and urbanization continues to increase. The outlook is not as optimistic in Asia and Africa. Asian forests are already quite diminished and populations are growing at a higher rate. In Africa, however, population growth overall and particularly in rural areas continues to increase, and net deforestation is expected to continue.
This research suggests that global deforestation will decrease, regeneration of forested areas will increase and a mass extinction of rainforest species can be avoided. Wright and Muller-Landau hope their research will stimulate more sophisticated predictions of future forest cover. In the meantime, further research is needed to establish the threat to individual species and determine which global, regional or local factors may influence these threats. This research will improve the ability to evaluate and manage human influences on forest species.(+)
